Aier Eye Hospital Group (XSEC:300015) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 300015 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

300015 (CN¥41.5) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥45.11)

300015 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	6/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

300015 Stock Overview

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd. operates eye care hospitals and institutions.

Rewards

Trading at 8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 29.08% per year

Earnings grew by 15.1% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Aier Eye Hospital Group Competitors

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics

SZSE:300760

CN¥378.8b

Topchoice Medical

SHSE:600763

CN¥55.9b

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding

SHSE:601607

CN¥60.4b

Huadong Medicine

SZSE:000963

CN¥79.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aier Eye Hospital Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥41.50
52 Week High	CN¥72.27
52 Week Low	CN¥25.02
Beta	0.63
1 Month Change	11.68%
3 Month Change	29.32%
1 Year Change	-41.78%
3 Year Change	131.24%
5 Year Change	499.31%
Change since IPO	503.38%

Shareholder Returns

	300015	CN Healthcare	CN Market
7D	1.1%	5.3%	2.3%
1Y	-41.8%	-32.7%	-8.1%

Return vs Industry: 300015 underperformed the CN Healthcare industry which returned -36% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 300015 underperformed the CN Market which returned -10.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 300015's price volatile compared to industry and market?
300015 volatility
300015 Average Weekly Movement	6.8%
Healthcare Industry Average Movement	6.7%
Market Average Movement	7.3%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	10.2%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	5.1%

Stable Share Price: 300015 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 300015's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2007	26,970	Li Li	https://www.aierchina.com

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd. operates eye care hospitals and institutions. The company offers medical services in the areas of fundus diseases, optometry, refractive correction, glaucoma, corneal diseases, and cataract.

Aier Eye Hospital Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Aier Eye Hospital Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
300015 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥225.00b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥2.45b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥15.66b

91.8x

P/E Ratio

14.4x

P/S Ratio

Is 300015 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
300015 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥15.66b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥7.57b
Gross Profit	CN¥8.09b
Other Expenses	CN¥5.64b
Earnings	CN¥2.45b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.45
Gross Margin	51.64%
Net Profit Margin	15.65%
Debt/Equity Ratio	16.4%

How did 300015 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.3%

Current Dividend Yield

26%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 300015 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 300015?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 300015. This is calculated by dividing 300015's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 300015's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥225.00b

300015 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	14.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	48.8x
PEG Ratio	3.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 300015's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

300015 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 300015 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	43.9x
300760 Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics	45.1x	19.9%	CN¥378.8b
600763 Topchoice Medical	79.4x	23.7%	CN¥55.9b
601607 Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding	15.8x	15.4%	CN¥60.4b
000963 Huadong Medicine	35.2x	21.0%	CN¥79.0b
300015 Aier Eye Hospital Group	91.8x	29.1%	CN¥225.0b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 300015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (91.8x) compared to the peer average (43.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 300015's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Healthcare Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 300015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (91.8x) compared to the CN Healthcare industry average (26.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 300015's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

300015 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	91.8x
Fair PE Ratio	46x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 300015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (91.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 300015 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 300015 (CN¥41.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥45.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 300015 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 300015 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.2x)

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Future Growth

How is Aier Eye Hospital Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

Future Growth Score

6/6

Future Growth Score 6/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

29.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 300015's forecast earnings growth (29.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 300015's earnings (29.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the CN market (23.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 300015's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 300015's revenue (22.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the CN market (17.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 300015's revenue (22.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 300015's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (25.2%)

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Past Performance

How has Aier Eye Hospital Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

27.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 300015 has a large one-off loss of CN¥963.0M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: 300015's current net profit margins (15.6%) are higher than last year (15.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 300015's earnings have grown significantly by 27.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 300015's earnings growth over the past year (15.1%) is below its 5-year average (27.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 300015 earnings growth over the past year (15.1%) exceeded the Healthcare industry 8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 300015's Return on Equity (20.4%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Aier Eye Hospital Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 300015's short term assets (CN¥6.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥6.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: 300015's short term assets (CN¥6.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥3.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 300015 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: 300015 had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: 300015's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (207.1%).

Interest Coverage: 300015 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Aier Eye Hospital Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.29%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 300015's dividend (0.29%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.48%).

High Dividend: 300015's dividend (0.29%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.94%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 300015's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 300015's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (26.2%), 300015's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (22.7%), 300015's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.6yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Li Li (56 yo)

no data

Tenure

CN¥1,141,700

Compensation

Mr. Li Li serves as a Non-Executive Non-Independent Director at ISEC Healthcare Ltd. since March 25, 2020. He serves as the Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd.si...

Board Members

Experienced Board: 300015's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/29 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31