Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:600998) Following Its Earnings Miss

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:600998), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Jointown Pharmaceutical Group missed earnings this time around, with CN¥37b revenue coming in 9.1% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.14 also fell short of expectations by 11%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Jointown Pharmaceutical Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jointown Pharmaceutical Group from five analysts is for revenues of CN¥157.7b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 6.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 25% to CN¥0.52. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥168.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.52 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of CN¥7.69, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Jointown Pharmaceutical Group's market value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Jointown Pharmaceutical Group analyst has a price target of CN¥10.26 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥4.11. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Jointown Pharmaceutical Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Jointown Pharmaceutical Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Jointown Pharmaceutical Group is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥7.69, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jointown Pharmaceutical Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Jointown Pharmaceutical Group that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.