Stock Analysis

The total return for Anhui Gujing Distillery (SZSE:000596) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

SZSE:000596
Source: Shutterstock

While Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000596) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 19% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been pleasing. Its return of 72% has certainly bested the market return!

In light of the stock dropping 4.3% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

Check out our latest analysis for Anhui Gujing Distillery

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Anhui Gujing Distillery managed to grow its earnings per share at 21% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 11% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:000596 Earnings Per Share Growth June 30th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Anhui Gujing Distillery has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Anhui Gujing Distillery's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Anhui Gujing Distillery's TSR for the last 5 years was 82%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While it's certainly disappointing to see that Anhui Gujing Distillery shares lost 12% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 16%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 13% for each year. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Anhui Gujing Distillery better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Anhui Gujing Distillery (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Anhui Gujing Distillery is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Anhui Gujing Distillery is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com