Toly BreadLtd Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 603866 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

603866 (CN¥6.03) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥0.87)

Is 603866 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 603866 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 603866 (CN¥6.03) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥0.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 603866 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 603866?

Key metric: As 603866 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 603866. This is calculated by dividing 603866's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 603866's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17.5x
Earnings	CN¥549.79m
Market Cap	CN¥9.73b

603866 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11x
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 603866's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 603866 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	46.9x
002216 Sanquan Food	17x	10.7%	CN¥9.9b
600305 Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-IndustryLtd	126x	42.7%	CN¥8.6b
603517 Juewei Food	29.8x	27.4%	CN¥12.0b
000848 Cheng De Lolo	14.8x	12.9%	CN¥9.1b
603866 Toly BreadLtd	17.5x	10.5%	CN¥9.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 603866 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the peer average (46.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 603866's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Food Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
002157 Jiangxi Zhengbang TechnologyLtd	2.6x	n/a	US$4.12b
600872 Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial and Commercial HoldingLtd	4.6x	-46.9%	US$2.26b
002086 Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech	3.7x	n/a	US$908.96m

No more companies available in this PE range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 603866 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the CN Food industry average (28.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 603866's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

603866 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.5x
Fair PE Ratio	20.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 603866 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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