Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.

XSEC:002736 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥109.3b

Guosen Securities Valuation

Is 002736 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 002736 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 002736 (CN¥11.37) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥5.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002736 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 002736?

Key metric: As 002736 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 002736. This is calculated by dividing 002736's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 002736's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.2x
EarningsCN¥5.16b
Market CapCN¥109.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 002736's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 002736 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.5x
000776 GF Securities
17.1x14.2%CN¥111.3b
000166 Shenwan Hongyuan Group
32.6x17.7%CN¥124.1b
600958 Orient Securities
29.6x13.3%CN¥81.6b
600999 China Merchants Securities
18.5x13.2%CN¥155.7b
002736 Guosen Securities
20.9x11.1%CN¥107.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 002736 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x) compared to the peer average (24.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 002736's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Capital Markets Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
002736 21.2xIndustry Avg. 32.1xNo. of Companies10PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 002736 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x) compared to the CN Capital Markets industry average (32.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 002736's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

002736 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.2x
Fair PE Ratio32.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 002736 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 002736 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥11.37
CN¥11.65
+2.5%
18.5%CN¥13.80CN¥9.50n/a2
Nov ’25CN¥11.54
CN¥11.65
+1.0%
18.5%CN¥13.80CN¥9.50n/a2
Oct ’25CN¥11.83
CN¥10.55
-10.8%
10.0%CN¥11.60CN¥9.50n/a2
Sep ’25n/a
CN¥10.55
0%
10.0%CN¥11.60CN¥9.50n/a2
Aug ’25CN¥8.92
CN¥8.75
-1.9%
8.6%CN¥9.50CN¥8.00n/a2
Jul ’25CN¥8.67
CN¥8.75
+0.9%
8.6%CN¥9.50CN¥8.00n/a2
Jun ’25CN¥8.94
CN¥8.75
-2.1%
8.6%CN¥9.50CN¥8.00n/a2
Dec ’24CN¥9.49
CN¥10.37
+9.3%
1.3%CN¥10.50CN¥10.24n/a2
Nov ’24CN¥9.56
CN¥10.37
+8.5%
1.3%CN¥10.50CN¥10.24CN¥11.542
Oct ’24CN¥9.21
CN¥10.37
+12.6%
1.3%CN¥10.50CN¥10.24CN¥11.832
Sep ’24CN¥9.22
CN¥10.37
+12.5%
1.3%CN¥10.50CN¥10.24n/a2
Aug ’24CN¥9.66
CN¥9.77
+1.1%
4.8%CN¥10.24CN¥9.30CN¥8.922
Jul ’24CN¥8.73
CN¥9.77
+11.9%
4.8%CN¥10.24CN¥9.30CN¥8.672
Jun ’24CN¥9.18
CN¥9.97
+8.6%
2.7%CN¥10.24CN¥9.70CN¥8.942

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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