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The five-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd (SHSE:600054) shareholders as stock falls 6.5% over the past week
It hasn't been the best quarter for Huangshan Tourism Development Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600054) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 14% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been pleasing. Its return of 18% has certainly bested the market return!
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
Check out our latest analysis for Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd actually saw its EPS drop 9.5% per year.
Since the EPS are down strongly, it seems highly unlikely market participants are looking at EPS to value the company. Given that EPS is down, but the share price is up, it seems clear the market is focussed on other aspects of the business, at the moment.
The modest 1.9% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 9.8% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd, it has a TSR of 23% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd shareholders are down 1.5% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 6.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd that you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SHSE:600054
Huangshan Tourism DevelopmentLtd
Engages in the tourism business in China.
Excellent balance sheet average dividend payer.