Shanghai Yaoji Technology (XSEC:002605) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2605 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

002605 (CN¥15.28) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥42.52)

2605 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	5/6

2605 Stock Overview

Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co., Ltd. produces and markets playing cards in China and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 64.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 21.18% per year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Profit margins (12.2%) are lower than last year (20.9%)

Shanghai Yaoji Technology Competitors

Comefly Outdoor

SHSE:603908

CN¥6.4b

Shanghai Phoenix Enterprise (Group)

SHSE:900916

US$555.3m

Xiamen Comfort Science&Technology Group

SZSE:002614

CN¥5.0b

Zhonglu.Co.Ltd

SHSE:900915

US$854.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Shanghai Yaoji Technology
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥15.28
52 Week High	CN¥32.81
52 Week Low	CN¥13.38
Beta	0.38
1 Month Change	3.17%
3 Month Change	-0.97%
1 Year Change	-10.43%
3 Year Change	32.87%
5 Year Change	19.47%
Change since IPO	-14.69%

Shareholder Returns

	2605	CN Leisure	CN Market
7D	4.2%	1.4%	0.4%
1Y	-10.4%	-4.1%	-7.9%

Return vs Industry: 002605 underperformed the CN Leisure industry which returned -4.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 002605 underperformed the CN Market which returned -7.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 2605's price volatile compared to industry and market?
2605 volatility
2605 Average Weekly Movement	5.8%
Leisure Industry Average Movement	5.8%
Market Average Movement	6.0%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	9.2%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	3.8%

Stable Share Price: 002605 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 002605's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1994	1,736	Shuo Yao	https://www.yaojipoker.com

Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co., Ltd. produces and markets playing cards in China and internationally. The company also produces and prints books. Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co., Ltd.

Shanghai Yaoji Technology Fundamentals Summary

How do Shanghai Yaoji Technology's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
2605 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥6.18b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥466.90m
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥3.84b

13.2x

P/E Ratio

1.6x

P/S Ratio

Is 2605 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
2605 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥3.84b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥2.34b
Gross Profit	CN¥1.49b
Other Expenses	CN¥1.02b
Earnings	CN¥466.90m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.16
Gross Margin	38.88%
Net Profit Margin	12.17%
Debt/Equity Ratio	20.4%

How did 2605 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.0%

Current Dividend Yield

26%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 2605 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2605?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 2605. This is calculated by dividing 2605's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 2605's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥6.18b

2605 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.2x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2605's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

2605 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2605 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	30.6x
603908 Comefly Outdoor	46.5x	31.3%	CN¥6.4b
900916 Shanghai Phoenix Enterprise (Group)	13x	n/a	US$555.3m
002614 Xiamen Comfort Science&Technology Group	13.1x	17.1%	CN¥5.0b
900915 Zhonglu.Co.Ltd	50x	n/a	US$854.2m
002605 Shanghai Yaoji Technology	13.2x	21.2%	CN¥6.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 002605 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (30.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2605's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Leisure Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 002605 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the CN Leisure industry average (44.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2605's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2605 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.2x
Fair PE Ratio	19.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 002605 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2605 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 002605 (CN¥15.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥42.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002605 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Shanghai Yaoji Technology forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

21.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 002605's forecast earnings growth (21.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 002605's earnings (21.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (24.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 002605's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 002605's revenue (19.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the CN market (17.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 002605's revenue (19.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 002605's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22%)

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Past Performance

How has Shanghai Yaoji Technology performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

40.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 002605 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 002605's current net profit margins (12.2%) are lower than last year (20.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 002605's earnings have grown significantly by 40.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 002605's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 002605 had negative earnings growth (-25.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Leisure industry average (-17.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 002605's Return on Equity (17%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Shanghai Yaoji Technology's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 002605's short term assets (CN¥1.5B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥1.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: 002605's short term assets (CN¥1.5B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥161.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 002605 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: 002605's debt to equity ratio has increased from 6.3% to 20.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 002605's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (89%).

Interest Coverage: 002605's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (16.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Shanghai Yaoji Technology current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.96%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 002605's dividend (1.96%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.44%).

High Dividend: 002605's dividend (1.96%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.87%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 002605's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 002605's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (25.8%), 002605's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (32.1%), 002605's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.3yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Shuo Yao

no data

Tenure

CN¥849,100

Compensation

Mr. Shuo Bin Yao serves as General Manager and Director of Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co., Ltd. (formerly known as Shanghai Yaoji Playing Card Co., Ltd.)

Board Members

Experienced Board: 002605's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/19 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/18 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31