Earnings Miss: Here's What Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600612) Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600612), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥13b) coming in 49% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.71 fell 52% short. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Lao Feng Xiang

Following the latest results, Lao Feng Xiang's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥78.9b in 2025. This would be a major 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 26% to CN¥4.87. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥83.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥5.07 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥58.95 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Lao Feng Xiang analyst has a price target of CN¥70.61 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥45.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Lao Feng Xiang's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Lao Feng Xiang to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Lao Feng Xiang. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Lao Feng Xiang analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Lao Feng Xiang's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.