Xiamen C&D (XSSC:600153) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 600153 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

600153 (CN¥11.92) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥47.26)

600153 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	5/6

600153 Stock Overview

Xiamen C&D Inc. engages in the supply chain, real estate development, and industrial investment businesses.

Rewards

Trading at 74.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.08% per year

Earnings grew by 66% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Xiamen C&D Competitors

Sichuan New Energy Power

SZSE:000155

CN¥34.9b

Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd

SHSE:600546

CN¥30.9b

Xiamen ITG GroupLtd

SHSE:600755

CN¥15.4b

Sinochem International

SHSE:600500

CN¥18.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Xiamen C&D
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥11.92
52 Week High	CN¥14.96
52 Week Low	CN¥7.05
Beta	0.56
1 Month Change	-0.33%
3 Month Change	-17.57%
1 Year Change	66.95%
3 Year Change	34.08%
5 Year Change	-12.74%
Change since IPO	57.05%

Shareholder Returns

	600153	CN Trade Distributors	CN Market
7D	2.8%	-0.4%	-0.09%
1Y	66.9%	14.1%	-7.4%

Return vs Industry: 600153 exceeded the CN Trade Distributors industry which returned 14.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 600153 exceeded the CN Market which returned -7.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 600153's price volatile compared to industry and market?
600153 volatility
600153 Average Weekly Movement	8.5%
Trade Distributors Industry Average Movement	5.8%
Market Average Movement	6.0%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	9.2%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	3.9%

Stable Share Price: 600153 is more volatile than 75% of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 600153's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of CN stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1980	26,761	Mao Lin	https://www.chinacnd.com

Xiamen C&D Inc. engages in the supply chain, real estate development, and industrial investment businesses. Its supply chain operations include the logistics purchase and planning, warehousing site selection and facilities supporting, goods risk management, reverse supply chain, customized, and inventory management and value-added services. The company also provides real estate development, urban renewal and renovation, property management, and business management services, as well as involved in the construction operations.

Xiamen C&D Fundamentals Summary

How do Xiamen C&D's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
600153 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥35.84b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥6.33b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥751.35b

5.7x

P/E Ratio

0.0x

P/S Ratio

Is 600153 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
600153 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥751.35b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥726.24b
Gross Profit	CN¥25.11b
Other Expenses	CN¥18.78b
Earnings	CN¥6.33b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.11
Gross Margin	3.34%
Net Profit Margin	0.84%
Debt/Equity Ratio	104.4%

How did 600153 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.0%

Current Dividend Yield

28%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 600153 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600153?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 600153. This is calculated by dividing 600153's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 600153's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥35.84b

600153 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.2x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 600153's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

600153 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 600153 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27.8x
000155 Sichuan New Energy Power	92.6x	n/a	CN¥34.9b
600546 Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd	4.9x	6.6%	CN¥30.9b
600755 Xiamen ITG GroupLtd	5.3x	n/a	CN¥15.4b
600500 Sinochem International	8.3x	n/a	CN¥18.3b
600153 Xiamen C&D	5.7x	9.1%	CN¥35.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600153 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the peer average (27.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 600153's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Trade Distributors Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600153 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the CN Trade Distributors industry average (29x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600153's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600153 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.7x
Fair PE Ratio	20.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600153 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600153 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600153 (CN¥11.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥47.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600153 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Xiamen C&D forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

9.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 600153's forecast earnings growth (9.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 600153's earnings (9.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (24.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 600153's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 600153's revenue (12.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the CN market (17.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 600153's revenue (12.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 600153's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.9%).

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Past Performance

How has Xiamen C&D performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

12.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 600153 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 600153's current net profit margins (0.8%) are higher than last year (0.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 600153's earnings have grown by 12.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 600153's earnings growth over the past year (66%) exceeds its 5-year average (12.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 600153 earnings growth over the past year (66%) exceeded the Trade Distributors industry 26.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 600153's Return on Equity (8.2%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Xiamen C&D's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 600153's short term assets (CN¥633.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥429.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: 600153's short term assets (CN¥633.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥118.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 600153's net debt to equity ratio (39.9%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: 600153's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 150.5% to 104.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 600153's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (5.4%).

Interest Coverage: 600153 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Xiamen C&D current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

5.03%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 600153's dividend (5.03%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.47%).

High Dividend: 600153's dividend (5.03%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.91%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 600153's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 600153's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (28.1%), 600153's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (25.4%), 600153's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

15.3yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Mao Lin (54 yo)

15.25yrs

Tenure

CN¥8,469,200

Compensation

Mr. Mao Lin is GM & Director of Xiamen C&D Inc. He joined the Xiamen C&D Inc. in April 2007. He was Deputy General Manager and Secretary of The Board of Directors of Xiamen C&D Inc. from April 2007.

Board Members

Experienced Board: 600153's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 15.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/28 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31