CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co., Ltd.

XSEC:301039 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥18.2b

CIMC Vehicles (Group) Valuation

Is 301039 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 301039 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 301039 (CN¥9.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥23.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 301039 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 301039?

Key metric: As 301039 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 301039. This is calculated by dividing 301039's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 301039's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.8x
EarningsCN¥1.02b
Market CapCN¥18.16b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 301039's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 301039 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
000951 Sinotruk Jinan TruckLtd
13.9x16.7%CN¥18.9b
000528 Guangxi Liugong Machinery
16.3x31.4%CN¥22.2b
603298 Hangcha Group
11.1x12.2%CN¥22.1b
688425 China Railway Construction Heavy Industry
17.9x17.2%CN¥25.2b
301039 CIMC Vehicles (Group)
17.8x24.9%CN¥18.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 301039 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 301039's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Machinery Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
002021 Zoje Resources Investment
4.6xn/aUS$398.81m
No more companies available in this PE range
301039 17.8xIndustry Avg. 35.0xNo. of Companies54PE020406080100+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 301039 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the CN Machinery industry average (35x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 301039's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

301039 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.8x
Fair PE Ratio26x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 301039 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 301039 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥9.69
CN¥12.74
+31.4%
10.3%CN¥15.00CN¥11.93n/a4
Nov ’25CN¥9.88
CN¥12.85
+30.1%
9.7%CN¥15.00CN¥12.00n/a4
Oct ’25CN¥11.15
CN¥12.85
+15.2%
9.7%CN¥15.00CN¥12.00n/a4
Sep ’25CN¥8.79
CN¥12.85
+46.2%
9.7%CN¥15.00CN¥12.00n/a4
Aug ’25CN¥8.97
CN¥12.85
+43.3%
9.7%CN¥15.00CN¥12.00n/a4
Jul ’25CN¥8.74
CN¥13.13
+50.3%
10.1%CN¥15.00CN¥12.02n/a3
Jun ’25CN¥9.32
CN¥13.51
+45.0%
11.0%CN¥15.00CN¥12.02n/a2
May ’25CN¥9.77
CN¥13.51
+38.3%
11.0%CN¥15.00CN¥12.02n/a2
Apr ’25CN¥9.93
CN¥13.51
+36.1%
11.0%CN¥15.00CN¥12.02n/a2
Mar ’25CN¥9.54
CN¥13.51
+41.6%
11.0%CN¥15.00CN¥12.02n/a2
Feb ’25CN¥8.55
CN¥13.51
+58.0%
11.0%CN¥15.00CN¥12.02n/a2
Jan ’25CN¥9.38
CN¥16.80
+79.1%
19.1%CN¥20.00CN¥13.59n/a2
Dec ’24CN¥10.71
CN¥16.80
+56.8%
19.1%CN¥20.00CN¥13.59n/a2
Nov ’24CN¥10.06
CN¥16.76
+66.6%
15.6%CN¥20.00CN¥13.59CN¥9.883
Oct ’24CN¥12.10
CN¥18.18
+50.2%
7.5%CN¥20.00CN¥16.70CN¥11.153
Sep ’24CN¥12.28
CN¥18.92
+54.1%
5.7%CN¥20.00CN¥17.84CN¥8.792
Aug ’24CN¥14.40
CN¥18.92
+31.4%
5.7%CN¥20.00CN¥17.84CN¥8.972
Jul ’24CN¥13.23
CN¥17.00
+28.5%
11.8%CN¥19.00CN¥15.00CN¥8.742
Jun ’24CN¥11.97
CN¥17.00
+42.0%
11.8%CN¥19.00CN¥15.00CN¥9.322
May ’24CN¥13.24
CN¥16.50
+24.6%
15.2%CN¥19.00CN¥14.00CN¥9.772
Apr ’24CN¥10.56
CN¥15.00
+42.0%
6.7%CN¥16.00CN¥14.00CN¥9.932

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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