JL Mag Rare-Earth Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300748) Just Missed Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, JL Mag Rare-Earth Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300748) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. JL Mag Rare-Earth missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥6.8b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.22, falling short by 6.1% and 6.8% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from JL Mag Rare-Earth's twelve analysts is for revenues of CN¥8.85b in 2025. This reflects a substantial 31% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 87% to CN¥0.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥9.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.45 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for JL Mag Rare-Earth

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥17.35, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on JL Mag Rare-Earth's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic JL Mag Rare-Earth analyst has a price target of CN¥25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥8.80. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 31% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 26% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 17% per year. So it's pretty clear that JL Mag Rare-Earth is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JL Mag Rare-Earth. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥17.35, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for JL Mag Rare-Earth going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for JL Mag Rare-Earth (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.