Optimistic Investors Push Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000837) Shares Up 35% But Growth Is Lacking

Those holding Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000837) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 35% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 5.7% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 64.8x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 29x and even P/E's below 18x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share?

Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 35% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.