Allied Machinery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605060) Surges 25% Yet Its Low P/E Is No Reason For Excitement

Despite an already strong run, Allied Machinery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605060) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 25% in the last thirty days. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 14% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Allied Machinery may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.3x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 37x and even P/E's higher than 73x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Allied Machinery over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Allied Machinery

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Allied Machinery, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Allied Machinery's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 28%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 2.9% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we are not surprised that Allied Machinery is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Key Takeaway

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Allied Machinery's P/E close to the market median. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Allied Machinery revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Allied Machinery that you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Allied Machinery. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.