SAIC Motor Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 600104 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

600104 (CN¥18.93) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥119.5)

Is 600104 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600104 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600104 (CN¥18.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥119.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600104 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600104?

Key metric: As 600104 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 600104. This is calculated by dividing 600104's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 600104's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	22.5x
Earnings	CN¥9.61b
Market Cap	CN¥216.27b

600104 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11x
PEG Ratio	2.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 600104's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 600104 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	61.9x
000625 Chongqing Changan Automobile	27.7x	20.6%	CN¥121.7b
600418 Anhui Jianghuai Automobile GroupLtd	128.4x	29.6%	CN¥76.1b
601127 Seres GroupLtd	52.6x	31.9%	CN¥204.4b
600166 Beiqi Foton MotorLtd	38.9x	50.3%	CN¥21.5b
600104 SAIC Motor	22.5x	7.8%	CN¥216.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600104 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the peer average (61.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 600104's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600104 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600104's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600104 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	22.5x
Fair PE Ratio	17x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600104 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 600104 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥18.93	CN¥13.07 -30.9%	25.5%	CN¥17.50	CN¥8.00	n/a	12
Nov ’25	CN¥12.89	CN¥13.07 +1.4%	25.5%	CN¥17.50	CN¥8.00	n/a	12
Oct ’25	CN¥14.63	CN¥13.49 -7.8%	23.9%	CN¥17.84	CN¥8.90	n/a	12
Sep ’25	CN¥12.56	CN¥13.74 +9.4%	23.9%	CN¥18.00	CN¥9.00	n/a	12
Aug ’25	CN¥14.73	CN¥15.12 +2.6%	20.8%	CN¥20.90	CN¥9.70	n/a	12
Jul ’25	CN¥13.86	CN¥15.12 +9.1%	20.8%	CN¥20.90	CN¥9.70	n/a	12
Jun ’25	CN¥14.07	CN¥15.12 +7.4%	20.8%	CN¥20.90	CN¥9.70	n/a	12
May ’25	CN¥14.86	CN¥15.25 +2.7%	20.3%	CN¥20.90	CN¥9.50	n/a	13
Apr ’25	CN¥15.27	CN¥14.99 -1.8%	19.7%	CN¥20.87	CN¥10.00	n/a	13
Mar ’25	CN¥14.98	CN¥14.69 -1.9%	18.2%	CN¥17.66	CN¥9.40	n/a	12
Feb ’25	CN¥13.71	CN¥14.66 +6.9%	18.6%	CN¥17.66	CN¥9.40	n/a	12
Jan ’25	CN¥13.53	CN¥14.74 +8.9%	18.8%	CN¥18.00	CN¥9.40	n/a	12
Dec ’24	CN¥14.86	CN¥15.27 +2.7%	24.3%	CN¥24.00	CN¥9.40	CN¥17.58	12
Nov ’24	CN¥14.52	CN¥15.37 +5.8%	23.4%	CN¥24.00	CN¥9.40	CN¥12.89	12
Oct ’24	CN¥14.80	CN¥16.18 +9.3%	21.5%	CN¥24.00	CN¥11.40	CN¥14.63	13
Sep ’24	CN¥14.54	CN¥15.98 +9.9%	21.4%	CN¥24.00	CN¥11.40	CN¥12.56	14
Aug ’24	CN¥15.35	CN¥15.91 +3.7%	20.7%	CN¥24.00	CN¥11.40	CN¥14.73	15
Jul ’24	CN¥14.17	CN¥16.22 +14.5%	19.8%	CN¥24.00	CN¥11.70	CN¥13.86	14
Jun ’24	CN¥13.49	CN¥16.30 +20.9%	19.2%	CN¥24.00	CN¥11.70	CN¥14.07	15
May ’24	CN¥14.12	CN¥17.72 +25.5%	22.4%	CN¥26.00	CN¥11.70	CN¥14.86	14
Apr ’24	CN¥14.36	CN¥17.85 +24.3%	21.2%	CN¥26.00	CN¥13.60	CN¥15.27	14
Mar ’24	CN¥15.19	CN¥17.82 +17.3%	22.3%	CN¥26.00	CN¥13.60	CN¥14.98	13
Feb ’24	CN¥15.19	CN¥17.66 +16.2%	23.6%	CN¥26.00	CN¥10.40	CN¥13.71	15
Jan ’24	CN¥14.41	CN¥17.72 +22.9%	23.0%	CN¥26.00	CN¥11.30	CN¥13.53	15
Dec ’23	CN¥15.07	CN¥18.40 +22.1%	23.5%	CN¥26.62	CN¥13.00	CN¥14.86	16

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.