Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

SZSE:000625 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥123.8b

Chongqing Changan Automobile Valuation

Is 625 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 625 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 000625 (CN¥14.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥24.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 000625 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 625?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

625 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.1x
PEG Ratio1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 625's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 625 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.4x
600104 SAIC Motor
11.6x1.8%CN¥164.7b
601965 China Automotive Engineering Research Institute
21.1x20.6%CN¥18.3b
600166 Beiqi Foton MotorLtd
21.8x38.3%CN¥19.2b
000550 Jiangling Motors Corporation
11.2x6.6%CN¥15.4b
000625 Chongqing Changan Automobile
25.4x18.9%CN¥123.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 000625 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.4x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 625's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a24.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a24.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 000625 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.4x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (17.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 625's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

625 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.4x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 000625 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 625 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥14.11
CN¥19.29
+36.7%
19.0%CN¥24.00CN¥13.90n/a10
Jun ’25CN¥13.79
CN¥19.29
+39.9%
19.0%CN¥24.00CN¥13.90n/a10
May ’25CN¥14.72
CN¥19.31
+31.2%
19.0%CN¥24.00CN¥13.90n/a10
Apr ’25CN¥17.74
CN¥18.75
+5.7%
23.8%CN¥24.00CN¥12.40n/a10
Mar ’25CN¥14.78
CN¥18.79
+27.1%
25.1%CN¥24.00CN¥12.40n/a9
Feb ’25CN¥12.78
CN¥19.47
+52.3%
21.4%CN¥24.00CN¥12.50n/a9
Jan ’25CN¥16.83
CN¥18.87
+12.1%
23.2%CN¥24.00CN¥12.50n/a9
Dec ’24CN¥19.18
CN¥17.85
-6.9%
25.9%CN¥24.00CN¥12.50n/a9
Nov ’24CN¥15.04
CN¥16.22
+7.9%
22.2%CN¥21.30CN¥11.00n/a9
Oct ’24CN¥13.44
CN¥14.64
+8.9%
21.6%CN¥20.00CN¥11.00n/a8
Sep ’24CN¥12.88
CN¥15.02
+16.6%
20.3%CN¥20.00CN¥11.00n/a9
Aug ’24CN¥15.83
CN¥14.06
-11.2%
15.2%CN¥17.00CN¥10.50n/a10
Jul ’24CN¥12.93
CN¥13.75
+6.3%
15.1%CN¥17.00CN¥10.50n/a9
Jun ’24CN¥11.87
CN¥14.07
+18.6%
15.6%CN¥17.00CN¥10.50CN¥13.7910
May ’24CN¥11.91
CN¥13.44
+12.8%
28.5%CN¥18.20CN¥4.85CN¥14.7210
Apr ’24CN¥11.92
CN¥13.87
+16.3%
30.6%CN¥18.80CN¥4.85CN¥17.7410
Mar ’24CN¥13.58
CN¥13.91
+2.4%
30.3%CN¥18.80CN¥4.85CN¥14.7810
Feb ’24CN¥14.79
CN¥13.00
-12.1%
38.0%CN¥18.80CN¥3.90CN¥12.7811
Jan ’24CN¥12.31
CN¥12.55
+2.0%
39.1%CN¥18.50CN¥4.20CN¥16.8310
Dec ’23CN¥13.75
CN¥12.44
-9.5%
36.3%CN¥17.80CN¥4.15CN¥19.1811
Nov ’23CN¥11.68
CN¥12.36
+5.9%
42.6%CN¥23.50CN¥4.15CN¥15.0411
Oct ’23CN¥12.56
CN¥12.92
+2.9%
46.6%CN¥23.50CN¥4.15CN¥13.4411
Sep ’23CN¥14.41
CN¥12.92
-10.3%
46.6%CN¥23.50CN¥4.15CN¥12.8811
Aug ’23CN¥20.10
CN¥12.74
-36.6%
48.4%CN¥23.50CN¥4.15CN¥15.8311
Jul ’23CN¥18.14
CN¥12.72
-29.9%
46.3%CN¥23.50CN¥4.15CN¥12.9311
Jun ’23CN¥11.17
CN¥9.85
-11.8%
31.4%CN¥13.15CN¥4.15CN¥11.8710

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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