SAIC Motor Corporation Limited

SHSE:600104 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥197.3b

SAIC Motor Valuation

Is 600104 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600104 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600104 (CN¥18.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥119.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600104 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600104?

Key metric: As 600104 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 600104. This is calculated by dividing 600104's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 600104's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.8x
EarningsCN¥9.61b
Market CapCN¥197.31b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 600104's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 600104 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average67.1x
000625 Chongqing Changan Automobile
29.8x20.6%CN¥127.4b
600418 Anhui Jianghuai Automobile GroupLtd
152.4x29.6%CN¥87.8b
601127 Seres GroupLtd
48.4x31.4%CN¥198.0b
600166 Beiqi Foton MotorLtd
37.8x50.3%CN¥20.7b
600104 SAIC Motor
21.8x8.1%CN¥197.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600104 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x) compared to the peer average (67.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 600104's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
600104 21.8xIndustry Avg. 17.8xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600104 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600104's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600104 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.8x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600104 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 600104 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥18.35
CN¥13.07
-28.8%
25.5%CN¥17.50CN¥8.00n/a12
Nov ’25CN¥12.89
CN¥13.07
+1.4%
25.5%CN¥17.50CN¥8.00n/a12
Oct ’25CN¥14.63
CN¥13.49
-7.8%
23.9%CN¥17.84CN¥8.90n/a12
Sep ’25CN¥12.56
CN¥13.74
+9.4%
23.9%CN¥18.00CN¥9.00n/a12
Aug ’25CN¥14.73
CN¥15.12
+2.6%
20.8%CN¥20.90CN¥9.70n/a12
Jul ’25CN¥13.86
CN¥15.12
+9.1%
20.8%CN¥20.90CN¥9.70n/a12
Jun ’25CN¥14.07
CN¥15.12
+7.4%
20.8%CN¥20.90CN¥9.70n/a12
May ’25CN¥14.86
CN¥15.25
+2.7%
20.3%CN¥20.90CN¥9.50n/a13
Apr ’25CN¥15.27
CN¥14.99
-1.8%
19.7%CN¥20.87CN¥10.00n/a13
Mar ’25CN¥14.98
CN¥14.69
-1.9%
18.2%CN¥17.66CN¥9.40n/a12
Feb ’25CN¥13.71
CN¥14.66
+6.9%
18.6%CN¥17.66CN¥9.40n/a12
Jan ’25CN¥13.53
CN¥14.74
+8.9%
18.8%CN¥18.00CN¥9.40n/a12
Dec ’24CN¥14.86
CN¥15.27
+2.7%
24.3%CN¥24.00CN¥9.40n/a12
Nov ’24CN¥14.52
CN¥15.37
+5.8%
23.4%CN¥24.00CN¥9.40CN¥12.8912
Oct ’24CN¥14.80
CN¥16.18
+9.3%
21.5%CN¥24.00CN¥11.40CN¥14.6313
Sep ’24CN¥14.54
CN¥15.98
+9.9%
21.4%CN¥24.00CN¥11.40CN¥12.5614
Aug ’24CN¥15.35
CN¥15.91
+3.7%
20.7%CN¥24.00CN¥11.40CN¥14.7315
Jul ’24CN¥14.17
CN¥16.22
+14.5%
19.8%CN¥24.00CN¥11.70CN¥13.8614
Jun ’24CN¥13.49
CN¥16.30
+20.9%
19.2%CN¥24.00CN¥11.70CN¥14.0715
May ’24CN¥14.12
CN¥17.72
+25.5%
22.4%CN¥26.00CN¥11.70CN¥14.8614
Apr ’24CN¥14.36
CN¥17.85
+24.3%
21.2%CN¥26.00CN¥13.60CN¥15.2714
Mar ’24CN¥15.19
CN¥17.82
+17.3%
22.3%CN¥26.00CN¥13.60CN¥14.9813
Feb ’24CN¥15.19
CN¥17.66
+16.2%
23.6%CN¥26.00CN¥10.40CN¥13.7115
Jan ’24CN¥14.41
CN¥17.72
+22.9%
23.0%CN¥26.00CN¥11.30CN¥13.5315
Dec ’23CN¥15.07
CN¥18.40
+22.1%
23.5%CN¥26.62CN¥13.00CN¥14.8616
Nov ’23CN¥14.11
CN¥18.46
+30.8%
23.4%CN¥26.62CN¥13.00CN¥14.5216

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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