SAIC Motor Valuation
Is 600104 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 600104 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 600104 (CN¥14.86) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥5.24)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 600104 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600104?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is 600104's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | CN¥170.44b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 8.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 5x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 600104's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 21.9x | ||
000625 Chongqing Changan Automobile | 26.5x | 18.5% | CN¥127.7b |
600166 Beiqi Foton MotorLtd | 24x | 38.3% | CN¥20.8b |
601965 China Automotive Engineering Research Institute | 24.4x | 20.2% | CN¥20.6b |
000550 Jiangling Motors Corporation | 12.7x | 6.6% | CN¥16.4b |
600104 SAIC Motor | 12.1x | 2.4% | CN¥170.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600104 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the peer average (21.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 600104's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600104 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (20x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 600104's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 12.1x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 16.8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600104 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | CN¥14.86 | CN¥15.25 +2.7% | 20.3% | CN¥20.90 | CN¥9.50 | n/a | 13 |
| Apr ’25 | CN¥15.27 | CN¥14.99 -1.8% | 19.7% | CN¥20.87 | CN¥10.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Mar ’25 | CN¥14.98 | CN¥14.69 -1.9% | 18.2% | CN¥17.66 | CN¥9.40 | n/a | 12 |
| Feb ’25 | CN¥13.71 | CN¥14.66 +6.9% | 18.6% | CN¥17.66 | CN¥9.40 | n/a | 12 |
| Jan ’25 | CN¥13.53 | CN¥14.74 +8.9% | 18.8% | CN¥18.00 | CN¥9.40 | n/a | 12 |
| Dec ’24 | CN¥14.86 | CN¥15.27 +2.7% | 24.3% | CN¥24.00 | CN¥9.40 | n/a | 12 |
| Nov ’24 | CN¥14.52 | CN¥15.37 +5.8% | 23.4% | CN¥24.00 | CN¥9.40 | n/a | 12 |
| Oct ’24 | CN¥14.80 | CN¥16.18 +9.3% | 21.5% | CN¥24.00 | CN¥11.40 | n/a | 13 |
| Sep ’24 | CN¥14.54 | CN¥15.98 +9.9% | 21.4% | CN¥24.00 | CN¥11.40 | n/a | 14 |
| Aug ’24 | CN¥15.35 | CN¥15.91 +3.7% | 20.7% | CN¥24.00 | CN¥11.40 | n/a | 15 |
| Jul ’24 | CN¥14.17 | CN¥16.22 +14.5% | 19.8% | CN¥24.00 | CN¥11.70 | n/a | 14 |
| Jun ’24 | CN¥13.49 | CN¥16.30 +20.9% | 19.2% | CN¥24.00 | CN¥11.70 | n/a | 15 |
| May ’24 | CN¥14.12 | CN¥17.72 +25.5% | 22.4% | CN¥26.00 | CN¥11.70 | CN¥14.86 | 14 |
| Apr ’24 | CN¥14.36 | CN¥17.85 +24.3% | 21.2% | CN¥26.00 | CN¥13.60 | CN¥15.27 | 14 |
| Mar ’24 | CN¥15.19 | CN¥17.82 +17.3% | 22.3% | CN¥26.00 | CN¥13.60 | CN¥14.98 | 13 |
| Feb ’24 | CN¥15.19 | CN¥17.66 +16.2% | 23.6% | CN¥26.00 | CN¥10.40 | CN¥13.71 | 15 |
| Jan ’24 | CN¥14.41 | CN¥17.72 +22.9% | 23.0% | CN¥26.00 | CN¥11.30 | CN¥13.53 | 15 |
| Dec ’23 | CN¥15.07 | CN¥18.40 +22.1% | 23.5% | CN¥26.62 | CN¥13.00 | CN¥14.86 | 16 |
| Nov ’23 | CN¥14.11 | CN¥18.46 +30.8% | 23.4% | CN¥26.62 | CN¥13.00 | CN¥14.52 | 16 |
| Oct ’23 | CN¥14.30 | CN¥19.21 +34.3% | 20.6% | CN¥26.62 | CN¥13.00 | CN¥14.80 | 15 |
| Sep ’23 | CN¥15.30 | CN¥19.21 +25.5% | 20.6% | CN¥26.62 | CN¥13.00 | CN¥14.54 | 15 |
| Aug ’23 | CN¥16.38 | CN¥19.99 +22.1% | 20.6% | CN¥27.00 | CN¥13.10 | CN¥15.35 | 14 |
| Jul ’23 | CN¥17.46 | CN¥20.23 +15.9% | 20.3% | CN¥27.00 | CN¥13.10 | CN¥14.17 | 14 |
| Jun ’23 | CN¥17.66 | CN¥20.55 +16.4% | 20.2% | CN¥27.00 | CN¥13.10 | CN¥13.49 | 15 |
| May ’23 | CN¥15.95 | CN¥22.40 +40.4% | 21.5% | CN¥32.00 | CN¥13.30 | CN¥14.12 | 16 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.