Sonda S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Sonda S.A. (SNSE:SONDA), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at CL$1.69, some 86% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at CL$236b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Sonda

Following the latest results, Sonda's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of CL$952.2b in 2022. This would be a reasonable 2.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 27% to CL$40.09. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CL$958.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CL$36.86 in 2022. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at CL$400, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Sonda, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CL$550 and the most bearish at CL$230 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Sonda's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Sonda is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Sonda's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sonda. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Sonda analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Sonda you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.