Parque Arauco S.A. (SNSE:PARAUCO) Shares Could Be 21% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

How far off is Parque Arauco S.A. (SNSE:PARAUCO) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Parque Arauco

Crunching the numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (CLP, Millions)	CL$38.0b	CL$14.0b	CL$96.0b	CL$137.8b	CL$183.0b	CL$229.4b	CL$275.5b	CL$320.8b	CL$365.2b	CL$409.3b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 43.53%	Est @ 32.83%	Est @ 25.34%	Est @ 20.1%	Est @ 16.43%	Est @ 13.86%	Est @ 12.06%
Present Value (CLP, Millions) Discounted @ 19%	CL$31.9k	CL$9.9k	CL$57.0k	CL$68.8k	CL$76.8k	CL$80.9k	CL$81.6k	CL$79.9k	CL$76.4k	CL$72.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CL$635b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 19%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CL$409b× (1 + 7.9%) ÷ (19%– 7.9%) = CL$4.0t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CL$4.0t÷ ( 1 + 19%)¹⁰= CL$698b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CL$1.3t. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CL$1.2k, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 21% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Parque Arauco as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 19%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.777. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Parque Arauco, there are three additional elements you should look at:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for Parque Arauco (1 is concerning!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does PARAUCO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SNSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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