The naturenergie holding AG (VTX:NEAG) Analyst Just Cut Their Revenue Forecast By 15%

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for naturenergie holding AG (VTX:NEAG), with the covering analyst making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

After the downgrade, the consensus from naturenergie holding's sole analyst is for revenues of €1.8b in 2024, which would reflect an uncomfortable 9.4% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 25% to €4.03. Before this latest update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of €2.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.99 in 2024. So there's been a clear change in analyst sentiment in the recent update, with the analyst making a substantial drop in revenues and reconfirming their earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for naturenergie holding

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the naturenergie holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 9.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - naturenergie holding is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion from this consensus update is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analyst holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately the analyst also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that naturenergie holding's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on naturenergie holding after today.

Uncomfortably, our automated valuation tool also suggests that naturenergie holding stock could be overvalued following the downgrade. Shareholders could be left disappointed if these estimates play out. Find out why, and see how we estimate the valuation for free on our platform here.

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