LEM Holding SA Just Missed Revenue By 21%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a mediocre week for LEM Holding SA (VTX:LEHN) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to CHF1,228 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. LEM Holding reported a serious miss, with revenue of CHF81m falling a huge 21% short of analyst estimates. The bright side is that statutory earnings per share of CHF57.26 were in line with forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for LEM Holding

After the latest results, the consensus from LEM Holding's four analysts is for revenues of CHF340.6m in 2025, which would reflect a definite 9.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 22% to CHF33.84 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF404.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF57.68 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about LEM Holding's prospects following the latest results, administering a real cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CHF1,793 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic LEM Holding analyst has a price target of CHF2,228 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF1,470. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await LEM Holding shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the LEM Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - LEM Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CHF1,793, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for LEM Holding going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for LEM Holding that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com