ams-OSRAM AG (VTX:AMS) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

It's been a pretty great week for ams-OSRAM AG (VTX:AMS) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to CHF1.12 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of €847m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with ams-OSRAM losing €0.72 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ams-OSRAM

Following last week's earnings report, ams-OSRAM's nine analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €3.47b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 63% to €0.83. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.48b and losses of €0.88 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at CHF3.26, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ams-OSRAM analyst has a price target of CHF17.86 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF0.95. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ams-OSRAM is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ams-OSRAM's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF3.26, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for ams-OSRAM going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for ams-OSRAM that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.