ams-OSRAM AG Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

One of the biggest stories of last week was how ams-OSRAM AG (VTX:AMS) shares plunged 23% in the week since its latest quarterly results, closing yesterday at CHF8.03. Revenues came in at €853m, in line with estimates, while ams-OSRAM reported a statutory loss of €0.28 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ams-OSRAM after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ams-OSRAM's nine analysts is for revenues of €3.49b in 2026. This would reflect a credible 4.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with ams-OSRAM forecast to report a statutory profit of €1.09 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €3.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.12 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ams-OSRAM

The average price target fell 6.6% to CHF9.90, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ams-OSRAM at CHF14.09 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF4.31. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that ams-OSRAM is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 3.8% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 5.8% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 9.5% annually for the foreseeable future. Although ams-OSRAM's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ams-OSRAM going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for ams-OSRAM that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.