Earnings Miss: Siegfried Holding AG Missed EPS By 18% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Siegfried Holding AG (VTX:SFZN) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to CHF887 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of CHF1.3b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit CHF26.22 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Siegfried Holding

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Siegfried Holding are now predicting revenues of CHF1.30b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 22% to CHF32.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF1.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF36.25 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CHF926, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Siegfried Holding's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Siegfried Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF1,000 and the most bearish at CHF800 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Siegfried Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Siegfried Holding.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CHF926, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Siegfried Holding analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Siegfried Holding that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.