Eli Lilly and Company

SWX:LLY Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 704.0b

Eli Lilly Valuation

Is LLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CHF 1.26k
Fair Value
37.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
26
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: LLY (CHF790) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF1261.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LLY?

Key metric: As LLY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LLY. This is calculated by dividing LLY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LLY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio74.1x
EarningsUS$10.59b
Market CapUS$784.71b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.6x
ROG Roche Holding
28.7x14.6%CHF 239.4b
NOVN Novartis
18.1x7.0%CHF 193.9b
DESN Dottikon ES Holding
38.8xn/aCHF 2.9b
COPN Cosmo Pharmaceuticals
16.8x21.5%CHF 1.1b
LLY Eli Lilly
74.1x21.7%CHF 784.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.1x) compared to the peer average (25.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LLY 74.1xIndustry Avg. 22.7xNo. of Companies10PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.1x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio74.1x
Fair PE Ratio59.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (59.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 790.00
CHF 880.53
+11.5%
14.3%CHF 1,067.61CHF 556.23n/a26
Feb ’26CHF 745.00
CHF 888.21
+19.2%
15.0%CHF 1,083.76CHF 528.22n/a26
Jan ’26CHF 690.00
CHF 868.89
+25.9%
15.1%CHF 1,103.73CHF 512.13n/a27
Dec ’25CHF 660.00
CHF 874.14
+32.4%
14.9%CHF 1,100.58CHF 510.67n/a27
Nov ’25CHF 750.00
CHF 875.70
+16.8%
13.9%CHF 1,088.25CHF 504.95n/a27
Oct ’25CHF 750.00
CHF 844.50
+12.6%
13.9%CHF 975.65CHF 492.07n/a25
Sep ’25CHF 800.00
CHF 839.00
+4.9%
13.9%CHF 977.74CHF 493.12n/a25
Aug ’25CHF 775.00
CHF 802.85
+3.6%
16.3%CHF 975.83CHF 471.75n/a26
Jul ’25CHF 830.00
CHF 780.99
-5.9%
14.0%CHF 925.31CHF 485.35n/a25
Jun ’25CHF 725.00
CHF 770.21
+6.2%
12.7%CHF 924.23CHF 487.86n/a26
May ’25CHF 690.00
CHF 776.97
+12.6%
13.3%CHF 940.28CHF 496.34n/a26
Apr ’25CHF 690.00
CHF 716.12
+3.8%
14.1%CHF 898.03CHF 449.02n/a26
Mar ’25CHF 660.00
CHF 677.98
+2.7%
15.0%CHF 883.24CHF 441.62n/a27
Feb ’25CHF 550.00
CHF 550.38
+0.07%
13.9%CHF 659.26CHF 371.54CHF 745.0026
Jan ’25CHF 505.00
CHF 534.14
+5.8%
13.6%CHF 622.54CHF 368.21CHF 690.0027
Dec ’24CHF 535.00
CHF 542.12
+1.3%
14.2%CHF 632.19CHF 376.51CHF 660.0027
Nov ’24CHF 540.00
CHF 530.10
-1.8%
16.2%CHF 633.37CHF 303.30CHF 750.0026
Oct ’24CHF 492.00
CHF 520.62
+5.8%
14.0%CHF 585.85CHF 311.23CHF 750.0026
Sep ’24CHF 490.00
CHF 471.17
-3.8%
16.8%CHF 556.07CHF 263.54CHF 800.0027
Aug ’24CHF 406.00
CHF 412.96
+1.7%
14.2%CHF 491.19CHF 260.81CHF 775.0027
Jul ’24CHF 416.00
CHF 403.22
-3.1%
14.8%CHF 491.30CHF 267.98CHF 830.0023
Jun ’24CHF 386.00
CHF 395.20
+2.4%
14.7%CHF 458.82CHF 271.49CHF 725.0023
May ’24CHF 348.00
CHF 353.65
+1.6%
15.0%CHF 434.66CHF 241.97CHF 690.0023
Apr ’24CHF 310.00
CHF 343.80
+10.9%
13.3%CHF 406.16CHF 246.99CHF 690.0023
Mar ’24CHF 298.00
CHF 358.14
+20.2%
12.8%CHF 417.32CHF 253.77CHF 660.0022
Feb ’24CHF 322.00
CHF 345.88
+7.4%
15.6%CHF 402.81CHF 184.92CHF 550.0022
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 26 Analysts
CHF 887.47
Fair Value
11.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
26
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/23 08:23
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/21 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Eli Lilly and Company is covered by 55 analysts. 27 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ToungArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Luisa HectorBerenberg