Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example, after five long years the TX Group AG (VTX:TXGN) share price is a whole 59% lower. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 25% in the last year. On the other hand, we note it's up 8.7% in about a month. But this could be related to good market conditions, with stocks up around 8.4% during the period.
View our latest analysis for TX Group
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over five years TX Group's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earnings. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on TX Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, TX Group's TSR for the last 5 years was -50%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 3.4% in the last year, TX Group shareholders lost 20% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand TX Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - TX Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CH exchanges.
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About SWX:TXGN
TX Group
Operates a network of platforms and participations that provides users with information, orientation, entertainment, and support services in Switzerland.
Flawless balance sheet average dividend payer.