Spotify Technology S.A.

SWX:SPOT Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 84.1b

Spotify Technology Valuation

Is SPOT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of SPOT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Fair Value: SPOT (CHF407.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF754.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPOT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPOT?

Key metric: As SPOT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPOT. This is calculated by dividing SPOT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPOT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio63.8x
Earnings€1.41b
Market Cap€90.24b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPOT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average70.1x
WBD Warner Bros. Discovery
144.9x-36.71%US$70.9b
DIS Walt Disney
16x2.29%US$202.5b
UMG Universal Music Group
15.2x-7.30%€39.6b
LYV Live Nation Entertainment
104.1x41.59%US$33.8b
SPOT Spotify Technology
63.8x24.62%CHF 104.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPOT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (63.8x) compared to the peer average (70x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SPOT 63.8xIndustry Avg. 13.8xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (63.8x) compared to the European Entertainment industry average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPOT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPOT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio63.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SPOT's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPOT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 407.15
CHF 584.02
+43.44%
11.58%CHF 714.15CHF 397.26n/a39
Jan ’27CHF 459.55
CHF 597.96
+30.12%
12.01%CHF 713.81CHF 397.07n/a39
Dec ’26CHF 476.50
CHF 605.62
+27.10%
12.24%CHF 731.67CHF 398.35n/a37
Nov ’26n/a
CHF 592.40
0%
13.98%CHF 724.02CHF 379.46n/a38
Oct ’26n/a
CHF 597.02
0%
14.34%CHF 730.01CHF 382.60n/a37
Sep ’26n/a
CHF 595.25
0%
14.12%CHF 731.53CHF 390.15n/a36
Aug ’26n/a
CHF 592.98
0%
13.24%CHF 727.69CHF 388.10n/a37
Jul ’26n/a
CHF 571.68
0%
14.96%CHF 729.53CHF 374.49n/a37
Jun ’26n/a
CHF 546.64
0%
11.39%CHF 656.32CHF 374.92n/a38
May ’26n/a
CHF 545.05
0%
11.91%CHF 657.29CHF 375.48n/a38
Apr ’26n/a
CHF 590.77
0%
13.73%CHF 670.93CHF 392.25n/a36
Mar ’26n/a
CHF 573.43
0%
17.43%CHF 658.79CHF 209.79n/a34
Feb ’26n/a
CHF 453.07
0%
17.13%CHF 590.37CHF 211.52n/a34
Jan ’26CHF 142.00
CHF 431.88
+204.14%
14.80%CHF 548.39CHF 210.77CHF 459.5535
Dec ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 420.83
+196.36%
14.33%CHF 541.73CHF 208.21CHF 476.5034
Nov ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 348.98
+145.76%
13.29%CHF 431.98CHF 211.38n/a34
Oct ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 336.76
+137.15%
13.48%CHF 431.47CHF 211.13n/a35
Sep ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 334.92
+135.86%
13.11%CHF 396.74CHF 209.77n/a33
Aug ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 341.17
+140.26%
13.10%CHF 406.46CHF 216.46n/a33
Jul ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 310.01
+118.32%
13.72%CHF 360.41CHF 189.22n/a31
Jun ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 314.69
+121.61%
14.27%CHF 370.82CHF 195.03n/a32
May ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 306.33
+115.73%
15.69%CHF 367.38CHF 193.23n/a33
Apr ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 242.42
+70.72%
14.16%CHF 298.33CHF 147.55n/a33
Mar ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 235.10
+65.57%
13.60%CHF 293.48CHF 145.15n/a32
Feb ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 188.94
+33.05%
14.91%CHF 260.31CHF 141.57n/a30
Jan ’25CHF 142.00
CHF 179.35
+26.31%
15.43%CHF 259.29CHF 128.48CHF 142.0030
CHF 586.88
Fair Value
30.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
39
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/16 08:49
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/16 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 74 analysts. 37 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William Noel MilnerArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
Samuel LourenszArete Research Services LLP