Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Alcon Inc. (VTX:ALC) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Alcon
How Much Debt Does Alcon Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Alcon had debt of US$4.70b, up from US$3.94b in one year. However, it also had US$1.05b in cash, and so its net debt is US$3.65b.
A Look At Alcon's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Alcon had liabilities of US$2.51b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.71b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.05b in cash and US$2.03b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$6.13b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Since publicly traded Alcon shares are worth a very impressive total of US$37.8b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Alcon's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.7 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 5.7 times last year. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. If Alcon can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 14% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Alcon can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Alcon's free cash flow amounted to 31% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Alcon was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to convert EBIT to free cash flow. It's also worth noting that Alcon is in the Medical Equipment industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Alcon is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Alcon's earnings per share history for free.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:ALC
Alcon
Researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products for eye care professionals and their patients worldwide.
Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.