Stock Analysis
- Switzerland
- /
- Capital Markets
- /
- SWX:UBSG
The UBS Group AG (VTX:UBSG) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Shareholders might have noticed that UBS Group AG (VTX:UBSG) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.9% to CHF30.16 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$48b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.53. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on UBS Group after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for UBS Group
Taking into account the latest results, UBS Group's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$47.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 31% to US$2.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$47.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.16 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at CHF30.69, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values UBS Group at CHF44.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF21.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.6% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - UBS Group is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for UBS Group. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that UBS Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF30.69, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for UBS Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for UBS Group you should be aware of.
New: AI Stock Screener & Alerts
Our new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.
• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)
• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying
• High growth Tech and AI Companies
Or build your own from over 50 metrics.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:UBSG
UBS Group
Provides financial advice and solutions to private, institutional, and corporate clients worldwide.