Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR): Assessing Valuation After Recent 3-Month Share Price Gain

Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR) has quietly outperformed the broader market over the past 3 months, gaining about 5%. That recent climb has investors asking whether the stock still offers value.

See our latest analysis for Canadian National Railway.

Despite the recent 3 month share price return of 5.31%, Canadian National Railway is still working off a softer backdrop, with a negative year to date share price return and a 1 year total shareholder return of minus 4.37%, suggesting steady fundamentals but fading momentum for now.

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With earnings still growing and the share price lagging its long term record, investors now face a familiar dilemma: is Canadian National quietly undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 2% Overvalued

According to TibiT, the narrative fair value for Canadian National Railway sits just below the last close, hinting at a tight margin for error around today’s price.

This recent weakness (1.3% revenue growth, -2.5% EPS growth in the last year) is, in my view, cyclical, not structural. It masks the emergence of a powerful new catalyst.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a slow year can still support a premium valuation? The narrative quietly leans on resilient margins, durable growth, and a bolder future earnings multiple. Want to see exactly how those moving parts add up? Dive into the full story behind this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $132.87 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this thesis could falter if reshoring adoption stalls or if prolonged macro weakness keeps freight volumes and pricing power below these optimistic assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Canadian National Railway narrative.

Another View on Value

While the narrative fair value pegs Canadian National Railway as about 2% overvalued, the earnings multiple sends a softer message. At 18.1 times earnings versus a 21.7 fair ratio and a 26.3 industry average, the stock looks modestly cheap, not stretched. Is the market underestimating CNR or the risks ahead?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Canadian National Railway Narrative

If you see the story differently or just want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft a fresh narrative in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Canadian National Railway research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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