Air Canada Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Air Canada has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 61.3%, while the Airlines industry saw earnings growing at 42.6% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 25.5% per year. Air Canada's return on equity is 29.2%, and it has net margins of 3.5%.
Key information
61.30%
Earnings growth rate
62.95%
EPS growth rate
| Airlines Industry Growth | 0.48% |
| Revenue growth rate | 25.47% |
| Return on equity | 29.19% |
| Net Margin | 3.46% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 24
AC: Refined Forecasts And Cost Controls Will Shape Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average 12 month price target on Air Canada by CA$1 to CA$29.62, citing slightly adjusted revenue growth and profit margin expectations, along with a modestly lower discount rate and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent price target revisions on Air Canada have been slightly lower, but the tone of Street commentary still highlights several supportive factors that bullish analysts see as important for the stock's longer term case.Analysis Article • Jun 19
Air Canada (TSX:AC) Stock Could Be 8.1% Overvalued After New Québec Lounge Opening
Air Canada (TSX:AC) has opened a new Air Canada Café at Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport, adding a premium lounge option that fits into its multiyear lounge modernization program and focus on higher value travelers. See our latest analysis for Air Canada. That café opening lands at a time when Air Canada’s share price has picked up momentum, with a 1-month share price return of 28.86% and a 90-day share price return of 39.56%, while the 1-year total shareholder return stands at...Narrative Update • Jun 07
AC: Fuel Headwinds And Cost Actions Will Shape Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their Air Canada price targets by a few Canadian dollars to the high-teens and low-20s CA$ range, reflecting updated fuel cost assumptions, more cautious earnings estimates and adjusted valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Air Canada clusters around lower price targets and more cautious ratings, with fuel costs and margin pressure cited as key constraints.
Narrative Update • May 24
AC: Higher Fuel Costs And Fleet Investments Will Shape Future Pricing Power
Analysts have reduced the Air Canada fair value estimate from CA$23.48 to about CA$22.39 as recent price target cuts reflect higher jet fuel costs and more cautious revenue and margin expectations, even though modeled profit margins and P/E assumptions have been slightly adjusted. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Air Canada point to a more cautious stance as analysts reassess fuel assumptions, earnings power and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Apr 28
AC: Higher Fuel Costs Will Eventually Support Stronger Pricing Power
Analysts have trimmed the Air Canada target by CA$0.50 to CA$23.48, reflecting updated assumptions for fuel costs and slightly softer margin expectations, even as revenue growth estimates and P/E assumptions are adjusted. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates cluster around two themes for Air Canada, your upside case tied to execution on growth and pricing, and your risk case centered on fuel costs and capacity plans.Narrative Update • Apr 14
AC: Fuel Cost Headwinds Will Present Opportunity For Future Margin Upside
Analysts have nudged the Air Canada fair value estimate slightly lower to CA$23.98 from CA$24.11, reflecting a series of recent price target cuts and rating downgrades that cite higher jet fuel costs and tighter margin expectations, even as revenue growth and profit margin assumptions in the model are adjusted upward and the future P/E assumption is marked lower. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Air Canada highlight a mixed setup, with some analysts trimming targets and ratings while others still see room for upside at current levels.Narrative Update • Mar 31
AC: Fuel Headwinds Will Present Opportunity For Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed the Air Canada price target by about CA$0.25 as higher jet fuel costs and more cautious long term estimates, including lower assumed revenue growth and a slightly higher discount rate, weigh against modestly better profit margin assumptions and a lower future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Air Canada clusters around two clear themes, with some analysts leaning constructive on execution and valuation, while others focus on fuel costs and capacity risk.
Narrative Update • Mar 16
AC: Higher Fuel Costs And Capacity Plans Will Shape Future Risk Reward
The updated fair value estimate for Air Canada shifts to CA$17.0 from CA$20.1. This reflects analysts' focus on higher discount rates, softer profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple after a series of price target cuts tied to rising jet fuel costs and more cautious earnings estimates. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Air Canada tilts more cautious, with several bearish analysts revising ratings and price targets alongside higher fuel cost assumptions and more conservative margin outlooks.Narrative Update • Mar 02
AC: Capacity Plans And Fleet Refresh Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward
Our updated Air Canada narrative reflects a higher fair value estimate of CA$20.10 from CA$18.69, in line with recent analyst price target increases into the CA$22 to CA$27 range, supported by refreshed earnings models and mixed views on the company’s longer term capacity growth plans. Analyst Commentary Street research on Air Canada has been active, with several firms updating their models and price targets following recent earnings.Narrative Update • Feb 16
AC: Fleet Expansion And Partnerships Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Air Canada has been raised by CA$4 to CA$22, with analysts pointing to updated post earnings models and revised assumptions on revenue growth, margins and future P/E to support the new level. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Air Canada have been cautious, even as published price targets move higher.Narrative Update • Jan 21
AC: Share Repurchases Will Support Future Upside Despite Cautious Earnings Expectations
Air Canada's updated analyst price target edges up to about C$24.36 from roughly C$24.24, as analysts factor in slightly adjusted revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, alongside recent target revisions clustered in the C$21 to C$26 range. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a mixed but fairly contained range of views on Air Canada, with price targets clustered around the low to mid C$20s.Analysis Article • Jan 09
Air Canada (TSE:AC) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Narrative Update • Jan 07
AC: Expanded Routes And Partnerships Will Support Constructive Long Term Upside
Analysts have modestly reduced their implied fair value for Air Canada from about C$31.59 to C$31.16. This reflects a series of slightly lower Street price targets and a view that near term upside to estimates may be limited, even as revenue growth assumptions and the future P/E expectation have been adjusted.Narrative Update • Dec 19
AC: Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Upside Amid Near-Term Operational Headwinds
Analysts have modestly reduced their Air Canada price target by C$1. This reflects a series of lowered Street targets and a cautious outlook on near term upside amid operational headwinds and limited positive catalysts.Narrative Update • Dec 05
AC: Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Upside Despite Near-Term Labor Headwinds
Air Canada’s analyst price target has been revised modestly lower, by roughly C$1 to C$2 per share, as analysts factor in softer near term upside, lingering labor and yield headwinds, and a lack of immediate positive catalysts despite largely unchanged long term fundamentals. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more balanced stance on Air Canada, with analysts broadly trimming price targets while maintaining a mix of positive and cautious views on the company’s execution and valuation.Narrative Update • Nov 21
AC: Summer Route Expansion And Share Buyback Will Drive Bullish Outlook
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Air Canada, with the fair value decreasing from C$24.36 to approximately C$24.24. They cite ongoing headwinds and a cautious near-term outlook for the airline sector as reasons for this adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 29
Labor Uncertainty And New Routes Will Shape Upcoming Performance
Analysts have lowered Air Canada's average price target in recent weeks, with cuts ranging from C$1 to C$2 per report. They cited headwinds such as weaker recent results, persistent labor risks, and a lack of near-term positive catalysts.Narrative Update • Oct 14
International Travel Expansion And Rising Costs Will Define Future Prospects
Air Canada's fair value estimate has been revised downward to $24.36 from $24.89 as analysts cite recent price target reductions, concerns about operational headwinds, and a weaker near-term outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research demonstrates a shift in sentiment surrounding Air Canada's outlook, with several firms adjusting their price targets and ratings in response to operational and market conditions.Narrative Update • Sep 26
International Travel Expansion And Rising Costs Will Define Future Prospects
Air Canada’s consensus price target was slightly reduced to CA$24.89, reflecting analyst caution amid weak Q3 results, strike disruptions, ongoing labor risks, and few near-term catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent downgrade driven by weak Q3 results due to strike disruptions, ongoing labor risks, and anticipated yield pressure.Analysis Article • Aug 04
Air Canada's (TSE:AC) Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit
Investors were disappointed by Air Canada's ( TSE:AC ) latest earnings release. We did some analysis, and found that...Analysis Article • Jul 21
Is Air Canada (TSE:AC) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
New Narrative • Dec 03
Capacity Expansion Amid Rising Costs Will Erode Profits And Limit Earnings Growth
Planned capacity expansion may undermine revenue growth if demand doesn't meet supply increases amid cost pressures.Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Air Canada makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 22,961 | 794 | 1,178 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 22,372 | 644 | 1,151 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 22,006 | -296 | 1,151 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 22,338 | 1,475 | 1,173 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 22,225 | 1,699 | 1,166 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 22,255 | 1,720 | 1,166 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 22,026 | 2,548 | 1,155 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 22,264 | 1,763 | 1,171 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 22,172 | 2,191 | 1,165 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 21,833 | 2,276 | 1,165 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 21,338 | 2,260 | 1,139 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 20,316 | 502 | 1,075 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 18,870 | -722 | 1,004 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 16,556 | -1,700 | 853 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 14,607 | -2,361 | 767 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 11,388 | -2,493 | 586 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 8,244 | -3,272 | 423 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 6,400 | -3,602 | 323 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 4,496 | -4,270 | 235 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 3,150 | -4,315 | 194 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 2,840 | -4,902 | 171 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 5,833 | -4,647 | 346 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 9,435 | -3,334 | 494 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 14,208 | -2,013 | 747 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 18,419 | 82 | 967 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 19,131 | 1,476 | 988 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 18,886 | 964 | 972 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 18,771 | 1,030 | 933 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 18,366 | 585 | 901 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 18,003 | 37 | 872 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 17,639 | 405 | 840 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 17,104 | 1,426 | 816 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 16,681 | 1,839 | 791 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 16,252 | 2,029 | 770 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 15,857 | 1,842 | 773 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 15,428 | 887 | 714 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 14,976 | 762 | 697 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 14,677 | 876 | 703 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 14,434 | 938 | 671 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 14,006 | 605 | 669 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 13,962 | 714 | 645 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 13,868 | 303 | 608 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 13,790 | 319 | 567 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: AC has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: AC's current net profit margins (3.5%) are lower than last year (7.6%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AC has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 61.3% per year.
Accelerating Growth: AC's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: AC had negative earnings growth (-53.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Airlines industry average (17.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: Whilst AC's Return on Equity (29.19%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/03 12:14 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/03 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Air Canada is covered by 31 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christopher Murray | ATB Cormark |
| David Ocampo | ATB Cormark Historical (Cormark Securities) |
| Ahmad Shaath | Beacon Securities Limited |