Kinaxis Inc. (TSE:KXS) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

Kinaxis (TSE:KXS) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 25% over the last three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. In this article, we decided to focus on Kinaxis' ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Kinaxis is:

2.4% = US$9.8m ÷ US$411m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CA$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CA$0.02 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Kinaxis

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Kinaxis' Earnings Growth And 2.4% ROE

It is quite clear that Kinaxis' ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 16%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 6.3% seen by Kinaxis over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

However, when we compared Kinaxis' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 24% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is KXS fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Kinaxis Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Because Kinaxis doesn't pay any regular dividends, we infer that it is retaining all of its profits, which is rather perplexing when you consider the fact that there is no earnings growth to show for it. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Kinaxis can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.