Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Gulf & Pacific Equities Corp. (CVE:GUF) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Gulf & Pacific Equities
How Much Debt Does Gulf & Pacific Equities Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 Gulf & Pacific Equities had debt of CA$25.8m, up from CA$23.4m in one year. However, it also had CA$1.87m in cash, and so its net debt is CA$24.0m.
How Strong Is Gulf & Pacific Equities' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Gulf & Pacific Equities had liabilities of CA$4.99m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CA$25.4m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$1.87m as well as receivables valued at CA$471.9k due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CA$28.1m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CA$10.3m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Gulf & Pacific Equities would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Gulf & Pacific Equities shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (15.4), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.1 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. However, one redeeming factor is that Gulf & Pacific Equities grew its EBIT at 11% over the last 12 months, boosting its ability to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Gulf & Pacific Equities's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Gulf & Pacific Equities actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
On the face of it, Gulf & Pacific Equities's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Gulf & Pacific Equities's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for Gulf & Pacific Equities (3 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSXV:GUF
Gulf & Pacific Equities
Invests in commercial real estate properties in western Canada.
Medium-low and overvalued.