Stock Analysis

Pulling back 8.7% this week, Colliers International Group's TSE:CIGI) five-year decline in earnings may be coming into investors focus

Published
TSX:CIGI

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, long term Colliers International Group Inc. (TSE:CIGI) shareholders have enjoyed a 96% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 40% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 21% in the last year , including dividends .

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 8.7%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

See our latest analysis for Colliers International Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Colliers International Group's earnings per share are down 26% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 0.3% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. On the other hand, Colliers International Group's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 12% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

TSX:CIGI Earnings and Revenue Growth January 8th 2024

This free interactive report on Colliers International Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Colliers International Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 21% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 15%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Colliers International Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Colliers International Group (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.