An Intrinsic Calculation For AcuityAds Holdings Inc. (TSE:AT) Suggests It's 34% Undervalued

Key Insights

• AcuityAds Holdings' estimated fair value is CA$2.95 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of CA$1.94 suggests AcuityAds Holdings is potentially 34% undervalued
• The CA$3.75 analyst price target for AT is 27% more than our estimate of fair value

Does the March share price for AcuityAds Holdings Inc. (TSE:AT) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for AcuityAds Holdings

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	CA$394.5k	CA$2.88m	CA$5.86m	CA$8.20m	CA$10.0m	CA$11.6m	CA$13.0m	CA$14.1m	CA$15.0m	CA$15.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 22.03%	Est @ 15.95%	Est @ 11.69%	Est @ 8.71%	Est @ 6.63%	Est @ 5.17%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3%	CA$0.4	CA$2.5	CA$4.6	CA$6.0	CA$6.7	CA$7.2	CA$7.4	CA$7.5	CA$7.3	CA$7.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$57m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$16m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (8.3%– 1.8%) = CA$246m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$246m÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)¹⁰= CA$111m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$168m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$1.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AcuityAds Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.098. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for AcuityAds Holdings

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For AcuityAds Holdings, there are three relevant items you should consider:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for AcuityAds Holdings (1 is significant!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does AT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.