We're Not Counting On Eagle Plains Resources (CVE:EPL) To Sustain Its Statutory Profitability

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. Today we'll focus on whether this year's statutory profits are a good guide to understanding Eagle Plains Resources (CVE:EPL).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Eagle Plains Resources made a profit of CA$1.87m on revenue of CA$4.41m. The chart below shows that revenue has improved over the last three years, and, even better, the company has moved from unprofitable to profitable.

Check out our latest analysis for Eagle Plains Resources

Not all profits are equal, and we can learn more about the nature of a company's past profitability by diving deeper into the financial statements. So this article aims to better understand Eagle Plains Resources' underlying earnings power by taking a look at how dilution, and unusual items are impacting it, and considering how well those paper profits are being converted into cash flow. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Eagle Plains Resources.

Examining Cashflow Against Eagle Plains Resources' Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to September 2020, Eagle Plains Resources had an accrual ratio of 1.24. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CA$502k despite its profit of CA$1.87m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CA$581k a year ago though, so Eagle Plains Resources has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not the end of the story. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively. One positive for Eagle Plains Resources shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. In fact, Eagle Plains Resources increased the number of shares on issue by 6.5% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Eagle Plains Resources' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of Eagle Plains Resources' Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

Three years ago, Eagle Plains Resources lost money. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

If Eagle Plains Resources' EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CA$2.0m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that Eagle Plains Resources' positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2020. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Eagle Plains Resources' Profit Performance

Eagle Plains Resources didn't back up its earnings with free cashflow, but this isn't too surprising given profits were inflated by unusual items. The dilution means the results are weaker when viewed from a per-share perspective. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Eagle Plains Resources'underlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Eagle Plains Resources (including 1 which is a bit concerning).

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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