Some Confidence Is Lacking In West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.'s (TSE:WFG) P/S

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Forestry industry in Canada have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.3x, West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (TSE:WFG) looks to be giving off some sell signals with its 1x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for West Fraser Timber

What Does West Fraser Timber's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Recent times haven't been great for West Fraser Timber as its revenue has been falling quicker than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the industry. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think West Fraser Timber's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as West Fraser Timber's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 22%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 11% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 3.7% per annum as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 6.2% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's alarming that West Fraser Timber's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

It comes as a surprise to see West Fraser Timber trade at such a high P/S given the revenue forecasts look less than stellar. The weakness in the company's revenue estimate doesn't bode well for the elevated P/S, which could take a fall if the revenue sentiment doesn't improve. At these price levels, investors should remain cautious, particularly if things don't improve.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for West Fraser Timber with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of West Fraser Timber's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.