Stock Analysis

Silvercorp Metals Inc.'s (TSE:SVM) Financials Are Too Obscure To Link With Current Share Price Momentum: What's In Store For the Stock?

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TSX:SVM
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Silvercorp Metals (TSE:SVM) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 25% over the last week. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Silvercorp Metals' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for Silvercorp Metals

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Silvercorp Metals is:

6.9% = US$41m ÷ US$598m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CA$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CA$0.07.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Silvercorp Metals' Earnings Growth And 6.9% ROE

When you first look at it, Silvercorp Metals' ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 13%. For this reason, Silvercorp Metals' five year net income decline of 7.3% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Silvercorp Metals' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 29% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth
TSX:SVM Past Earnings Growth October 4th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Silvercorp Metals fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Silvercorp Metals Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Silvercorp Metals' low three-year median payout ratio of 11% (or a retention ratio of 89%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Additionally, Silvercorp Metals has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 9.6% of its profits over the next three years.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Silvercorp Metals can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Silvercorp Metals is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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About TSX:SVM

Silvercorp Metals

Silvercorp Metals Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in China and Mexico.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Valuation4
Future Growth1
Past Performance0
Financial Health6
Dividends0

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

Flawless balance sheet and good value.