Pan American Silver Corp. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders of Pan American Silver Corp. (TSE:PAAS) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to CA$54.03 following its latest third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.44, some 23% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$855m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the five analysts covering Pan American Silver are now predicting revenues of US$4.07b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a huge 25% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 104% to US$3.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.43 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the sizeable expansion in earnings per share expectations following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Pan American Silver

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$66.50, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Pan American Silver analyst has a price target of CA$72.90 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$60.11. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 20% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 17% annually. So although Pan American Silver is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Pan American Silver's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$66.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Pan American Silver. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Pan American Silver going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Pan American Silver you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.