Stock Analysis

New Gold (TSE:NGD) pulls back 6.4% this week, but still delivers shareholders favorable 6.6% CAGR over 5 years

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TSX:NGD

New Gold Inc. (TSE:NGD) shareholders have seen the share price descend 14% over the month. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. Unfortunately its return of 38% is below the market return of 53%.

While the stock has fallen 6.4% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for New Gold

Given that New Gold didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last 5 years New Gold saw its revenue grow at 3.4% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering the bottom line. The modest growth is probably broadly reflected in the share price, which is up 7%, per year over 5 years. We'd be looking for the underlying business to grow revenue a bit faster.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

TSX:NGD Earnings and Revenue Growth February 14th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think New Gold will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that New Gold has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 24% in the last twelve months. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of New Gold by clicking this link.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if New Gold might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.