Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD): Fresh 2025 Production Guidance Sparks Renewed Look at Valuation

Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD) just updated its 2025 gold production guidance, narrowing the expected range to 470,000 to 490,000 ounces. Investors often watch these revisions closely, since tighter targets can reflect increased certainty around operations.

See our latest analysis for Eldorado Gold.

The production update comes shortly after Eldorado Gold completed a share buyback, retiring nearly one percent of its stock over the last quarter. While the 30-day share price return dipped by nearly 11%, recent momentum shows a 14% rise over the past 90 days and a remarkable 60% year-to-date share price return. Long-term investors have seen an outstanding total shareholder return of 326% over three years, suggesting that sentiment and expectations around operational improvements are building.

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With shares up more than 60% this year and guidance becoming more precise, investors are left to wonder if Eldorado Gold still trades at a discount or if the market has already priced in its growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 19.9% Undervalued

Eldorado Gold’s current narrative points to a fair value of CA$45.20 per share, well above the recent close of CA$36.23. The gap suggests analysts believe the company’s earnings power and growth initiatives are not yet fully factored into today’s price.

Sustained global macroeconomic trends, particularly heightened geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation, are supporting record-high and resilient gold prices. These factors directly contribute to higher top-line revenues for Eldorado and are likely to persist given central bank buying and gold's role as a safe-haven asset.

Read the complete narrative.

What powers such a bullish narrative? The secret sauce is not just higher gold prices. It includes bold revenue forecasts, ambitious margin gains and assumptions that could reshape profit expectations. Want to see which numbers analysts are betting on and what could send this stock even higher? Do not miss the key details behind this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $45.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistently high operating costs or delays in bringing new projects online could quickly challenge these bullish assumptions and shift sentiment.

Find out about the key risks to this Eldorado Gold narrative.

Build Your Own Eldorado Gold Narrative

If you have a different view or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can build your personalized narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Eldorado Gold.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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