Endeavour Mining plc Just Beat EPS By 37%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Endeavour Mining plc (TSE:EDV) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.0% to close at CA$60.46 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were US$915m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.68, an impressive 37% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Endeavour Mining after the latest results.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Endeavour Mining's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$4.78b in 2026. This would reflect a substantial 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 184% to US$5.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.97 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Endeavour Mining

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$72.97, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Endeavour Mining analyst has a price target of CA$87.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$37.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Endeavour Mining's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Endeavour Mining is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Endeavour Mining. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Endeavour Mining. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Endeavour Mining analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Endeavour Mining .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.