Stock Analysis

Canfor Pulp Products (TSE:CFX) shareholders are up 18% this past week, but still in the red over the last five years

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TSX:CFX

This week we saw the Canfor Pulp Products Inc. (TSE:CFX) share price climb by 18%. But spare a thought for the long term holders, who have held the stock as it bled value over the last five years. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 89% in that time. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The important question is if the business itself justifies a higher share price in the long term. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

While the last five years has been tough for Canfor Pulp Products shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

View our latest analysis for Canfor Pulp Products

Canfor Pulp Products wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last five years Canfor Pulp Products saw its revenue shrink by 4.5% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. If a business loses money, you want it to grow, so no surprises that the share price has dropped 14% each year in that time. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. Fear of becoming a 'bagholder' may be keeping people away from this stock.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

TSX:CFX Earnings and Revenue Growth December 21st 2023

This free interactive report on Canfor Pulp Products' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 6.3% in the last year, Canfor Pulp Products shareholders lost 57%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 14% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Canfor Pulp Products is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

We will like Canfor Pulp Products better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.