While Conifex Timber Inc. (TSE:CFF) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the TSX over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Conifex Timber’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What is Conifex Timber worth?
According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 2.4x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 3.04x, which means if you buy Conifex Timber today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe Conifex Timber should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Conifex Timber’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Conifex Timber?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Conifex Timber, it is expected to deliver a highly negative revenue growth over the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? CFF seems priced close to industry peers right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on CFF, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on CFF for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on CFF should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've found that Conifex Timber has 2 warning signs (1 is potentially serious!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
If you are no longer interested in Conifex Timber, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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