Stock Analysis

Institutional owners may ignore Alamos Gold Inc.'s (TSE:AGI) recent CA$613m market cap decline as longer-term profits stay in the green

Published
TSX:AGI

Key Insights

  • Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Alamos Gold's stock price might be vulnerable to their trading decisions
  • 49% of the business is held by the top 25 shareholders
  • Recent sales by insiders

If you want to know who really controls Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. And the group that holds the biggest piece of the pie are institutions with 70% ownership. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn).

Losing money on investments is something no shareholder enjoys, least of all institutional investors who saw their holdings value drop by 5.1% last week. However, the 82% one-year return to shareholders may have helped lessen their pain. We would assume however, that they would be on the lookout for weakness in the future.

Let's delve deeper into each type of owner of Alamos Gold, beginning with the chart below.

See our latest analysis for Alamos Gold

TSX:AGI Ownership Breakdown September 30th 2024

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Alamos Gold?

Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.

Alamos Gold already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This can indicate that the company has a certain degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is best to be wary of relying on the supposed validation that comes with institutional investors. They too, get it wrong sometimes. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of Alamos Gold, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.

TSX:AGI Earnings and Revenue Growth September 30th 2024

Institutional investors own over 50% of the company, so together than can probably strongly influence board decisions. We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in Alamos Gold. Van Eck Associates Corporation is currently the company's largest shareholder with 11% of shares outstanding. Meanwhile, the second and third largest shareholders, hold 8.9% and 3.6%, of the shares outstanding, respectively.

On studying our ownership data, we found that 25 of the top shareholders collectively own less than 50% of the share register, implying that no single individual has a majority interest.

Researching institutional ownership is a good way to gauge and filter a stock's expected performance. The same can be achieved by studying analyst sentiments. There are plenty of analysts covering the stock, so it might be worth seeing what they are forecasting, too.

Insider Ownership Of Alamos Gold

The definition of an insider can differ slightly between different countries, but members of the board of directors always count. Management ultimately answers to the board. However, it is not uncommon for managers to be executive board members, especially if they are a founder or the CEO.

Insider ownership is positive when it signals leadership are thinking like the true owners of the company. However, high insider ownership can also give immense power to a small group within the company. This can be negative in some circumstances.

Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of Alamos Gold Inc. in their own names. Being so large, we would not expect insiders to own a large proportion of the stock. Collectively, they own CA$42m of stock. Arguably recent buying and selling is just as important to consider. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

General Public Ownership

The general public, who are usually individual investors, hold a 30% stake in Alamos Gold. This size of ownership, while considerable, may not be enough to change company policy if the decision is not in sync with other large shareholders.

Next Steps:

I find it very interesting to look at who exactly owns a company. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Alamos Gold , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you would prefer discover what analysts are predicting in terms of future growth, do not miss this free report on analyst forecasts.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.