Is First Majestic Silver’s 159% Rally in 2025 Backed by Fundamentals?

• If you are wondering whether First Majestic Silver is still a smart buy after its huge run up, or if you are late to the party, this breakdown will help you decide whether the current price makes sense or is getting ahead of fundamentals.
• The stock has cooled slightly with a 4.0% pullback over the last week, but that comes after a powerful 35.9% jump over the past month and an eye catching 158.7% gain year to date, building on a 183.9% return over the last year.
• Recent moves in silver prices, shifting expectations around interest rates and renewed investor interest in precious metals have all helped push sentiment toward silver miners like First Majestic. In addition, the company has been in the spotlight for its operational updates and production outlook, which are feeding directly into how the market is repricing its future cash flows.
• Despite that enthusiasm, First Majestic Silver only scores a 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks. Next we will walk through how different valuation approaches look at this stock, and why there might be an even better way to judge its true value by the end of the article.

First Majestic Silver scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: First Majestic Silver Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those amounts back to the present.

For First Majestic Silver, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about $116.6 million. Analysts provide detailed forecasts for the next few years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates these out to build a 10 year view. Under this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, free cash flow is expected to rise to roughly $530.2 million in 2035, with the interim years stepping up gradually from current levels.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $26.95 per share. That implies the stock is trading at roughly a 17.5% discount to its calculated fair value. This indicates that the share price has not fully aligned with its projected cash generation according to this model.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests First Majestic Silver is undervalued by 17.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 918 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for First Majestic Silver.

Approach 2: First Majestic Silver Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like First Majestic Silver, the price to earnings (PE) ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are paying for each dollar of current earnings. In general, faster growing and less risky businesses can justify a higher PE multiple. Slower growth or higher uncertainty should translate into a lower, more conservative PE.

First Majestic is currently trading on a rich PE of about 115.9x, well above the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 21.0x and also higher than the peer group average of around 46.7x. On the surface, that suggests the market is already pricing in very strong growth or a significant improvement in profitability compared to typical miners.

Simply Wall St also applies a proprietary Fair Ratio, which estimates what PE multiple would be reasonable given First Majestic’s earnings growth outlook, margins, risk profile, industry and market cap. This tailored Fair Ratio is more informative than simply comparing against broad industry or peer averages, because it adjusts for the specific strengths and risks of the business. With the current PE sitting meaningfully above this Fair Ratio, this multiple-based view points to the shares being priced ahead of fundamentals.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1456 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your First Majestic Silver Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you connect your view of a company’s story with a concrete forecast for its future revenue, earnings and margins. You can then translate that into a fair value you can compare with today’s share price to help decide whether to buy, hold or sell. The underlying assumptions are automatically refreshed as new news, earnings and guidance are released. For First Majestic Silver, one investor might build a bullish Narrative around robust production growth, improving margins and a fair value above CA$21. Another might focus on execution risks, cost pressures and a more conservative outlook that supports a much lower fair value. Narratives make both perspectives visible, quantifiable and directly comparable against the current market price.

Do you think there's more to the story for First Majestic Silver? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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