Are Manulife Financial Corporation's (TSE:MFC) Fundamentals Good Enough to Warrant Buying Given The Stock's Recent Weakness?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Manulife Financial's (TSE:MFC) recent performance, when its stock has declined 2.2% over the past month. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. In this article, we decided to focus on Manulife Financial's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Manulife Financial is:

11% = CA$5.9b ÷ CA$53b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CA$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CA$0.11.

See our latest analysis for Manulife Financial

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Manulife Financial's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

To begin with, Manulife Financial seems to have a respectable ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 13%. For this reason, Manulife Financial's five year net income decline of 8.4% raises the question as to why the decent ROE didn't translate into growth. So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared Manulife Financial's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 11% over the last few years.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Manulife Financial's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Manulife Financial Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Manulife Financial has a high three-year median payout ratio of 56% (that is, it is retaining 44% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent.

Moreover, Manulife Financial has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 41% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 15%, over the same period.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Manulife Financial has some positive attributes. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which means that investors aren't reaping the benefits of the high rate of return. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.