Topaz Energy Corp. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Topaz Energy Corp. (TSE:TPZ), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues of CA$76m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of CA$0.074 an impressive 26% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Topaz Energy's five analysts is for revenues of CA$401.4m in 2026. This reflects a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 26% to CA$0.46. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$401.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.48 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Topaz Energy

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$31.52, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Topaz Energy at CA$35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$29.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Topaz Energy is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Topaz Energy'shistorical trends, as the 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 15% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.6% per year. So although Topaz Energy is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Topaz Energy. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$31.52, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Topaz Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Topaz Energy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Topaz Energy is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.