David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSE:TOU) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Tourmaline Oil's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 Tourmaline Oil had debt of CA$587.1m, up from CA$459.3m in one year. However, it also had CA$46.6m in cash, and so its net debt is CA$540.5m.
How Strong Is Tourmaline Oil's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Tourmaline Oil had liabilities of CA$998.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CA$3.54b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$46.6m as well as receivables valued at CA$533.2m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CA$3.95b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given Tourmaline Oil has a humongous market capitalization of CA$22.4b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Tourmaline Oil's net debt is only 0.20 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 112 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Tourmaline Oil if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 66% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Tourmaline Oil's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Tourmaline Oil recorded free cash flow worth 79% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
The good news is that Tourmaline Oil's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its EBIT growth rate. All these things considered, it appears that Tourmaline Oil can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Tourmaline Oil (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
Explores for and develops oil and natural gas properties in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
High growth potential with solid track record.