Trican Well Service Ltd. Just Recorded A 85% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

As you might know, Trican Well Service Ltd. (TSE:TCW) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 16% higher than the analysts had forecast, at CA$212m, while EPS were CA$0.08 beating analyst models by 85%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Trican Well Service

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Trican Well Service, is for revenues of CA$957.6m in 2024. This implies a noticeable 3.4% reduction in Trican Well Service's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 19% to CA$0.49 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$952.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.50 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CA$5.78, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Trican Well Service analyst has a price target of CA$6.75 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$4.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Trican Well Service's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Trican Well Service's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Trican Well Service is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$5.78, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Trican Well Service going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Trican Well Service (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com