Results: Trican Well Service Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for Trican Well Service Ltd. (TSE:TCW) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.5% to CA$4.44. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CA$259m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 11%, coming in at CA$0.17 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Trican Well Service's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be CA$978.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 4.0% to CA$0.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$983.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.51 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Trican Well Service's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Trican Well Service

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$5.53, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trican Well Service at CA$6.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$4.75. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Trican Well Service's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Trican Well Service.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Trican Well Service's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Trican Well Service's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Trican Well Service analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Trican Well Service (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.